Why there is no agreement on climate change

The difficulty of trying to get a global agreement for climate change comes down to one core problem – unemployment in America.

As demonstrated on 27 July, US politicians have given up trying to pass an emissions trading scheme (EMS) for fear of causing jobs losses and not getting re-elected.

And with America not pulling its weight, many other countries are refusing to do so as well.

On the surface it seems unfair to blame one country for the lack of progress.

But when working backwards as to why there is no global agreement, it comes down to unemployment in places like West Virginia and Indiana – heavy coal-producing states in America.

Climate change reached full momentum last December when national representatives met in Copenhagen to try and agree on a set of rules to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere.

However, an agreement wasn’t reached, mainly because America – the crucial player – wasn’t prepared to commit to legally binding rules and targets.

The US representatives, including President Obama, couldn’t guarantee that what they agreed to could be implemented back in Washington.

Then, like now, it essentially boils down to maths. To pass an EMS they need every Democrat in the Senate to vote yes to get the necessary 60 votes (all Republicans said they would vote no).

But the two Democratic Senators from West Virginia said they won’t vote for it for fear of not being re-elected in November.

An EMS would force high carbon costs onto coal-fired power stations in West Virginia, resulting in thousands of job losses and even closures.

As one West Virginian miner remarked, “There aren’t any good jobs outside of coal here. West Virginia is coal.”

So for that reason, Obama’s Democrats have given up trying to pass an EMS, also known as a cap-and-trade system, before the congressional elections in November.

However, in those elections the pro-business Republicans are expected to win more seats in Washington, making the chances of passing an EMS for several years after November even less likely.

This political situation is effectively holding the rest of the world hostage.

30 out of the world’s 38 ‘rich’ countries have established emissions trading schemes, mostly EU countries and New Zealand.

But large emitters like China, India and Australia are refusing to do so until America signs up.

President Obama himself is frustrated at the deadlock. It was one of his main campaign promises. However, his administration can still impose certain emissions restrictions through the back door.

In 2007, the US Supreme Court ruled that greenhouse gases could be included in the 1990 Clean Air Act.

As a result, the Environmental Protection Agency – without the need for congress’s permission – has decided to begin restricting emissions on power plants from next year.

Other agencies also have powers to limit emissions from things like cars and home appliances. Experts estimate that if all possible rules were made, they would reach a total reduction of about 13% of 2005 levels.

But that’s even lower than America’s pitiful 2020 reduction target of 17% from 2005 levels – or 4% from 1990 levels – promised in Copenhagen (most countries are aiming for 50% from 1990 levels).

And that is even assuming all such measures are implemented.

In reality, President Obama wouldn’t go down that path of backdoor reductions because it’s messy and undemocratic. Any backlash from the American people could see him voted out in 2012.

So because of all these self-interested groups in Washington and coal states like West Virginia, a global agreement remains out of reach while the planet gets warmer.

Indeed, the first six months of 2010 recorded the warmest combined global land and ocean surface temperatures since records began in 1880.

So for those who believe the 98% of scientists who claim man-made climate change is real, the scientific evidence hasn’t changed.

What has changed is the economy. People’s jobs are now considered to be more important than climate change.

In fact, the number of people in America who now believe that the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated in the news has increased by 50% since 2008.

The US is the second largest emitter in the world, just behind China. But it is by far the largest emitter per person.

Without this key global polluter on board, many feel that the quest for a climate change agreement at December’s conference in Mexico is hopeless.

Right now what environmental groups should be doing is lobbying the US government to open up places like West Virginia to non-coal industries to create other jobs.

But people have been saying that for years with little effect. Maybe the planet’s fate might just be a worthy incentive.

By The Casual Truth

Photo – Coal power station in West Virginia