The real war in Sudan

This week, Sudan held its first real elections since 1986. And while attention in recent years has been on the high-profile Darfur conflict of Western Sudan, it’s the lesser known but much larger war between north and south that’s creating the real problems.

In fact, things there are so divided that Southern Sudan is due to have a referendum next year to decide whether it should become its own country.

This crucial issue, plus boycotts from all angles, are causing a messy return to elections for Africa’s largest county.

Sudan has been at almost constant war since its independence in 1953. A series of military takeovers combined with ethnic and religious tensions have created deep conflicts.

In January 2005, after 40 years of civil war and 2 million civilian deaths, North and South Sudan finally signed a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

Sudan’s epic civil war

Britain used to run the mostly Arab/Muslim north and African/Christian south as two separate regions. This was until the Arab north forced them to merge the two in 1946, and make Arabic the south’s government language.

The resulting ethnic hierarchy certainly created problems, but the story is really about resources.

Most of Sudan’s oil fields (oil accounts for 70% of its exports) are located either in the south, or on the border between the north and south.

The problem was that the north had been taking most of the oil revenue and leaving little for the south.

The CPA was designed to change this. It included government reforms, better sharing of oil revenues, and some political freedom for the south. It also stated that a referendum will be held in January 2011 so southerners can decide if they want their own country.

Thanks to the CPA, the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) – the rebel army turned political party – now governs the south.

They are also part of Sudan’s national government in the north, in coalition with President Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP). Silva Kiir, Southern Sudan’s President, is Sudan’s Vice-President.

The CPA certainly looks good on paper. But the reality five years on is very different.

The central government in the north is still using questionable practices to maintain its power in the south, and genuine efforts to improve democracy have been limited.

There have been some successes which have maintained the peace. But progress is slow. Southern Sudan remains under-developed and southerners are still very poor with limited access to government services.

Juba, the capital, is little more than a collection of containers and huts. Despite its vast oil wealth, a four-wheel drive is needed to handle its dusty, potholed roads.

The Darfur conflict diverted the world’s attention from the problems of the south. But they haven’t gone away. Drought and food shortages last year led to renewed violence between tribes, with thousands of people being killed.

The violence was made worse by easy access to weapons leftover from the civil war, and the Southern Sudan government has been unable to protect the population.

It’s this violence and unnecessarily poor living standards which is why people are hoping for change.

Landmark elections?

The months leading to this week’s elections have been marred with controversy.

Firstly, a census dispute has meant there are 6 million less people on the election register in Southern Sudan than their government claims. This mathematical error means they get fewer seats in the national parliament.

Secondly, voter registration in Darfur has been riddled with fraud and intimidation. According to election observers, efforts were made to register NCP supporters but not a large number of opposition supporters.

This includes the majority of Darfur’s 3 million internally displaced people from the war.

The National Electoral Commission (supposed to be independent but closely linked to the ruling NCP) has claimed that the security situation prevented voter registration in parts of Darfur – parts that just happened to be opposition strongholds.

Due to these issues, the opposition demanded electoral reforms. After this was ignored, they decided to boycott the elections.

This includes SPLM and Umma, the main opposition party in the north. The South Sudan presidential candidate, Yasser Arman, and Umma’s candidate have also withdrawn from the race, making victory for President Bashir almost certain.

The elections started on Sunday and have been extended by two days to finish today due to reports of problems and delays.

This is unsurprising given Sudan is Africa’s biggest country and lacks road access to many places. The security problems throughout the country don’t help.

But many are cynical about its outcome and credibility. They believe a landmark occasion has turned into a rigged election for Bashir, quietly supported by the international community.

Whatever the case may be, the test for southerners is January next year when they will be hoping for a fair go in voting for a new country. Until then, the signs are looking like it’s going to be business as usual.

By Zoe Dugal

Map – Map of Sudan with south in red, north in yellow and Darfur to the west in blue.