The dangerous standoff in Ivory Coast

Tension is high in the West African nation of Ivory Coast (also known as Cote d’Ivoire) as two political rivals have both been declared winners of the recent presidential election.

Raising the prospect of violence is the fact that the two candidates are from opposing sides of the decade-long civil conflict that was supposed to be concluded with the election.

Now the international community is trying to settle the dispute before violence erupts. But finding a solution may not be easy.

The troubled decade

Ivory Coast was an economic powerhouse in West Africa during the 1960s and 70s, thanks to a stable government under President Felix Houphouet-Boigny and the flourishing export industries of coffee and cocoa (of which it is the world’s largest exporter).

However, after the death of Houphouet-Boigny in 1993, and military takeovers in 1999 and 2001, the country erupted into civil war in 2002.

The New Forces rebel group representing the mainly Muslims in the north were bitter over the political discrimination of the Christians in the south, and the refusal to let their candidates compete in the 2000 elections.

They consequently obtained complete control of the northern half of the country; effectively splitting it into two countries (the north and south are also split along ethnic lines).

Eventually a peace agreement was signed in 2007 that called for a presidential election to be held in 2008.

However, that was delayed twice due to difficulties associated with enrolments and disarmament.

The election was finally held on October 31, but as per the rules with no candidate gaining over 50% of the vote, a runoff had to be held between the two top candidates.

That runoff election took place on November 28, but both candidates have claimed victory: current president Laurent Gbagbo (pronounced ‘Bagbo’) from the south, and his main rival Alassane Ouattara (pronounced ‘Wattara’) from the north.

Stumbling at the last hurdle?

The drama started at a press conference last Tuesday when a Gbagbo supporter in the Electoral Commission publicly tore up his colleague’s preliminary results papers just before they were about to be read out.

Two days later the Commission announced that Ouattara had won the election with 54% of the vote, and although there were a few voting irregularities, the election was largely free and fair.

The independent observers from the UN and the EU accepted this result, as well as the African Union and US and French governments.

The UN, as part of its mission to provide 10,000 peacekeepers to the country, was given the right to certify the results.

However, the Constitutional Council, an oversight body, immediately ruled that the Commission no longer had legal authority to declare the winner because they had missed the announcement deadline by a day, meaning the decision is now theirs.

The next day they ruled that the votes in seven regions in the north should be annulled because of apparent voter intimidation and rigging by the New Forces. Consequently, they declared Gbagbo the winner with 51% of the vote.

Gbagbo is a close friend of the head of the Constitutional Council, and he also enjoys the support of the police and the army (important in African politics).

In a statement, Gbagbo said, “You think you can cheat, stuff ballot boxes and intimidate voters and that the other side won’t see what is going on.”

On Saturday, both Gbagbo and Ouattara held swearing-in ceremonies to be the new president.

Gbagbo’s took place at the presidential palace while Ouattara held his at the UN headquarters in an upmarket hotel where he and members of the Electoral Commission have been sheltering under UN protection since the announcement.

Shortly after the Council’s results were announced, the military sealed the country’s borders. And although they were reopened yesterday, an evening curfew remains in place.

Former South African President Thabo Mbeki has flown to Abidjan, the capital of Ivory Coast, to try to mediate a solution on behalf of the African Union.

He says he will listen to both points of view and that the ultimate aim is to avoid a return to violence.

Meanwhile, spates of violence and street protest have taken place across the country. At least 17 people have been killed in election-related incidents.

However, it hasn’t yet erupted into full-scale conflict. The international community is hoping that the matter can be resolved before anger and frustration levels get to that.

But given the tension and rivalry between south and north (the New Forces have said they will take up arms again if Ouattara is denied victory), that outcome is certainly possible.

Such “incalculable consequences” as the African Union have put it, would erase all the progress made since 2007, and be devastating for the country and the region.

By The Casual Truth

Photo – Laurent Gbagbo (left) and Alassane Ouattara