The best is yet to come: Presidential elections in Côte d’Ivoire

Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) has just been through ten years of political chaos and five years of war between the government and the rebel group, the Forces Nouvelles (FN).

But in November 2009, they will finally have a legitimate presidential election, which will hopefully re-establish some kind of legal normality.

The improvement began with the Ouagadougou Peace Agreement (APO) in March 2007. This brought all the fighting parties to the table to try to end the war.

Since 2002, the country has literally been divided into two parts – the North controlled by the FN rebellion and the South controlled by the forces loyal to the government.

A bit of background

Côte d’Ivoire has been in turmoil since 1999. General Gueï led a military coup that overthrew the government of President Konan Bédié.

A year later, the military held token general elections as a way of keeping power. Apart from General Gueï and Laurent Gbagbo (pronounced Bagbo), the other main leaders – Alassane Ouattar and Henri Konan Bédié – were not allowed to compete.

Gbagbo won, but the process was a farce. He himself admitted his election was “lame.”

Consequently, in 2002, a rebellion broke out in the North of Côte d’Ivoire. After two years of intense fighting, the war was contained when the French, who maintained a strong military presence in the country, retaliated to an attack on their soldiers by destroying all the government’s military aircraft.

UN forces came in 2003 and after several attempts to bring the various parties to the negotiating table, in March 2007 the peace agreement (APO) was reached between the President-in-Charge, Laurent Gbagbo, and the leader of the rebels, Guillaume Soro.

Under the agreement, Soro became the new Prime Minister of a national (grand) coalition government where all the main political parties were represented.

In addition, the APO said a proper presidential election (with all the political leaders) was due in 2008 and in the meantime, the electoral list had to be cleared, the rebels disarm and the country reunite.

The 2008 deadline has since been deemed too difficult, and the presidential election was postponed until this year.

The candidates

The so-called ‘big three’ are:

– Laurent Gbagbo (FPI) the current President.

Gbagdo’s lack of legitimacy from his bizarre election in 2000 is still a fresh wound. And the rebellion he’s had to face has complicated his political ambition for the country.

– Alassane Ouattara (RDR), Prime Minister between 1992 and 1993.

When President and Father of Independence Houphouët-Boigny died in 1993, Outtara got in a scrap with Konan Bédié over his replacement and Outtara broke off to create his own political party, the RDR.

His political and presidential ambitions have been constrained by ‘identity’ or ‘nationality’ problems. He has been accused of not being a true Ivorian as some say he is from Burkina Faso and he claims to represent the Northern people.

– Henri Konan Bédié, Houphouët-Boigny’s heir and President from 1993 to 1999.

He is now 75 years old but still convinced he has a chance to be the next president. His political party, the PDCI, was in power from the independence to 1990.

Uncertainties

The two big issues, apart from serious organisational and financial uncertainties, are:

– The stance of the Forces Nouvelles.

According to the peace agreement, they have to be dissolved into the new Ivorian army and be demobilised. But still they control the North (collect taxes, control the borders, and exploit gold and diamond mines), and their transformation into a civil force is not obvious.

Until now, they do not support any candidates and their leader, Guillaume Soro, is not a candidate. The success or failure of the election will depend on their attitude and ability to control and disarm their men.

– The attitude of the French is still a major concern.

Despite a reassuring declaration from both sides, the relationship between Côte d’Ivoire and France is cold. During the war, the French were accused of attempting to topple Gbagbo’s government.

More recently, French President Nicolas Sarkozy declared that Gbagbo’s commitments for the election were “false promises”.

The French keep a strong military presence in the country and a neutral attitude towards the main candidates will be crucial to the success of this election process.

By Mathieu Gasparini

Mathieu Gasparini is from Switzerland and did a Masters in African Studies at Oxford. He is a regular writer for various small Swiss publications. His interests cover a large range of topics but specialises in West African politics and environment. He lives in Abidjan (Cote d’Ivoire) where he manages an SME.

Photo/IRIN - Cote d'Voire 2009 Caravan Arts for Peace Festival