Addressing fear and failure in Afghanistan

President Obama’s primetime speech yesterday on the future of the Afghanistan war was aimed at addressing public anxiety over it becoming a modern-day Vietnam – a war with no hope or purpose.

He had good reason. People are sick and tired of reading about it. The American public is divided on still supporting it. And it will cost a lot of money – something the US government cannot afford to waste.

But no matter what people think, it is crucial to get Afghanistan right. And that is what President Obama plans to do. He knows what failure there will mean – because America has done it before.

The US was in Afghanistan in the 1980s supporting the locals against the invading Soviet Union. After the Soviets pulled out, the US left straight away leaving behind a social and political mess which created the environment for the Taliban to take over the country.

And this is exactly why the Americans are there now – because the people who attacked them on 9/11 were welcomed in Afghanistan by the Taliban.

Obama made the decision this week to send 30,000 more troops to the troubled country. He does not want to leave a mess that will allow the Taliban and Al Qaeda to take over again and threaten America’s security.

Before looking at the nature of Obama’s call, it is important to understand the problem.

Plainly speaking, the people think their government is providing a bad service. Officials and politicians are believed to be greedy, corrupt and useless, which they reasonably are.

This affects people’s everyday lives and so just like a business decision they naturally look to someone else who will do a better job for them.

This is where the Taliban comes in. As long as the current government (supported by the US) continues to do a bad job, the Taliban will always have a degree of support because they are the alternative in many places.

However, if the lives of Afghans improve under the current government, as their newly re-elected President Hamid Karzai promises, then the Taliban will eventually be shunned.

They will run out of decent places to hide and miserable people to recruit. Their winning argument of ‘look how bad the government is’ will no longer be true.

Indeed, the poor state of everyday life is the problem. The immediate solution to fixing the problem (in conjunction with a proper effort from Karzai’s government) is to regain physical control of the areas which the Taliban has secured over the past few years of fighting.

Which brings us back to the decision by President Obama. The US commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McCrystal, advised Obama that more troops are needed from 2010 if the military objectives are to be achieved.

This includes not only fighting the Taliban, but maintaining control of the areas they win, and helping to train the Afghan forces who will take over when the US leaves. This will provide the environment for improvement to take place.

After three months of deliberations with key members in his administration, Obama agreed and announced the deployment of 30,000 troops (mostly Marines) will take place early next year.

Withdrawal from the country will begin in 18 months time (2011), with ground conditions determining the final exit date.

The rationale goes that by putting in a big effort now, the time at which the US can safely leave will be much sooner. In other words, to carry on with the current resources would see a continuation and deterioration of the already bad situation.

This would spell failure, and again allow the Taliban to take over and Al-Qaeda to flourish – increasing the risk of further attacks on the US and its allies.

The other key point which Obama stressed in his speech is the importance of winning a similar war in Pakistan. Al-Qaeda realistically only needs one country as a base and will quite happily set up shop there if conditions will allow it. The fight there is in the tribal border region.

It’s important to remember what the war is about. It’s not about killing people as punishment for 9/11. It is about preventing another 9/11. Americans do not care about Afghans. They care about their security. Making Afghanistan a better place is a means to that security.

So it’s fair to say the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan will decide this war’s outcome. If they continue resenting the way their country’s run, they’ll settle for the Taliban. Obama’s plan is to make sure this doesn’t happen.

By The Casual Truth